Analysis of Tourism Shocks by Unit Root Test with Structural Breaks: The Case of Turkey

Abstract

It is very important in developing tourism policies to determine the sensitivity of tourism parameters to shocks as well as whether they are permanent or temporary. In this context, the aim of this study investigates to shocks in number of tourists, tourism revenue and the average tourist spending variables between 1965 to 2018 for Turkey. Unit Root tests with one and two structural breaks were used as methods in the analysis of the data. The main finding that obtained the study shows that the shocks are permanent in the short-run but transitory in the long-run. The effect of the shock and dates are guidelines for the shaping of tourism plans and policies.